Amazon Contextual Product Ads

Translate

Saturday, August 24, 2013

The Luck of the Draw: Fantasy Football Snake Drafts (8.24.13)

With the NFL season kicking off on Thursday, September 5th, much of the country will be participating in a fantasy football draft within the next two weeks. Hopefully, you are not some poor sap stuck in a league that drafts before the preseason even begins, and if you are, it is time for you to find a new league—and possibly, new friends. According to a 2012 Forbes publishing, an estimated 32 million people in the US and Canada aged 12 and above partook in fantasy sports in 2010, with 90% of those users playing fantasy football. Add in three more years of fantasy fever, and an expanding global audience, and it can be surmised that the number of participants is even greater nowadays—and many play in multiple leagues. With that in mind, let's examine the most common fantasy draft, a snake draft.

While auction drafts are slowly increasing their numbers, it is the snake draft that dominates fantasy football. If you are unfamiliar with the term, a snake draft goes in ascending order, and then descending order (i.e. 1-12, and then 12-1). With the snake draft as the norm, I will put to rest the often expressed, "I hate my draft spot," notion. Every year, there is one owner—more likely two to three—who complains about his draft spot—often the final pick of the first round. With most leagues utilizing a computerized random draw to compile the draft order, there simply isn't anything that can be done about this. Someone has to draw the final pick of the first round, it is inevitable. Hell, some people even hate getting the first pick. With the draft order often compiled by a random generation, those that are satisfied with their spot will feel lucky, while those who are dissatisfied obviously feel unlucky. The sliding scale of dissatisfaction cannot be ignored; however, does the actual draft spot even matter? I believe that the best owners make do with their spot and draft accordingly—as George Lopez would say, "Why you crying?"

Due to such complaints, I decided to participate in five twelve-team mock drafts, with each draft following a specific template. With five mocks to hopefully create my case, I entered with the first pick, the third pick, the sixth pick, the ninth pick, and the twelfth pick. I figured that these picks would give the strongest indication of the importance of a draft order, or lack thereof. Utilizing my own draft template, I drafted accordingly by round for each mock draft: RB (1st), RB (2nd), Best Available for Roster (3rd), WR (4th), WR/RB/Top 3 TE (5th), QB/Flex (6th), QB/Flex (7th), Flex (8th), Flex (9th), TE/Flex (10th), TE/Flex (11th), TE/Flex (12th), Flex (13th), Flex (14th), Def/K (15th), Def/K (16th). 

So let's take a look at the results.



1st Pick Tm
3rd Pick Tm
6th Pick Tm
9th Pick Tm
12th Pick Tm
RB
Adrian
Peterson
(MIN, RB, 
1)
Marshawn
Lynch
(SEA, RB, 3)
Jamaal
Charles
(KC, RB, 
6)
Alfred
Morris
(WAS, RB, 
9)
Steven
Jackson
(ATL, RB, 
12)
RB
Chris
Johnson
(TEN, RB, 24)
Chris
Johnson
(TEN, RB, 22)
Frank
Gore
(SF, RB, 
19)
Steven
Jackson
(ATL, RB 
16)
Matt
Forte
(CHI, RB, 
13)
Best Available
for Roster
Julio
Jones
(ATL, WR, 25)
Jimmy
Graham
(NO, TE, 27)
Vincent
Jackson
(TB, WR, 30)
David
Wilson
(NYG, RB, 33)
Wes
Welker
(DEN, WR, 37)
WR
Danny
Amendola
(NE, WR, 
48)
Reggie
Bush
(DET, RB, 46)
Victor
Cruz
(NYG, WR, 43)
Wes
Welker
(DEN, WR, 40)
Victor
Cruz
(NYG, WR, 38)
WR/RB/
Top TE
Rob
Gronkowski
(NE, TE, 
49)
Steve
Smith
(CAR, WR, 51)
Tony
Gonzalez
(ATL, TE, 54)
Eric
Decker
(DEN, WR, 57)
Tony
Gonzalez
(ATL, TE, 
60)
QB/Flex
Cecil
Shorts
(JAC, WR, 72)
Torrey
Smith
(BAL, WR, 70)
Jordy
Nelson
(GB, WR, 62)
James
Jones
(GB, WR, 64)
Matthew
Stafford
(DET, TE, 61)
QB/Flex
Russell
Wilson
(SEA, QB, 73)
Russell
Wilson
(SEA, QB, 75)
Andrew
Luck
(IND, QB, 76)
Tony
Romo
(DAL, QB, 81)
Tavon
Austin
(STL, WR, 84)
Flex
Mark
Ingram
(NO, RB, 
96)
Mike
Williams
(TB, WR, 94)
Vick
Ballard
(IND, RB, 91)
Shane
Vereen
(NE, RB, 
88)
Andre
Brown
(NYG, RB, 85)
Flex
Ronnie
Hillman
(DEN, RB, 97)
Ronnie
Hillman
(DEN, RB, 99)
Kenny
Britt
(TEN, WR, 102)
Kenny
Britt
(TEN, WR, 105)
Le’Veon
Bell
(PIT, RB, 108)
TE/Flex
Golden
Tate
(SEA, WR, 120)
Golden
Tate
(SEA, WR, 118)
Bernard
Pierce
(BAL, RB, 115)
Le’Veon
Bell
(PIT, RB, 112)
Chris
Givens
(STL, WR, 109)
TE/Flex
Rueben
Randle
(NYG, WR, 121)
Malcom
Floyd
(SD, WR, 123)
Ben
Tate
(HOU, RB, 126)
Jermichael Finley
(GB, TE, 129)
Ryan
Broyles
(DET, WR, 132)
TE/Flex
Alshon
Jeffery
(CHI, WR, 144)
Shonn
Greene
(TEN, RB, 142)
Alshon
Jeffery
(CHI, WR, 139)
Shonn
Greene
(TEN, RB, 136)
Reuben
Randle
(NYG, WR, 133)
Flex
Jordan
Cameron
(CLE, TE, 145)
Andre
Roberts
(ARI, WR, 147)
Kenbrell Thompkins
(NE, WR, 150)
Brian
Hartline
(MIA, WR, 153)
Andre
Roberts
(ARI, WR, 156)
Flex
Daniel
Thomas
(MIA, RB, 168)
Jordan
Cameron
(CLE, TE, 166)
Robert
Turbin
(SEA, RB, 163)
Brandon Pettigrew
(DET, TE, 160)
Michael
Bush
(CHI, RB, 157)
Def/K
Ravens
(BAL, 
D/ST, 169)
Dan
Bailey
(DAL, K, 171)
Cowboys
(DAL, 
D/ST, 174)
Greg
Zuerlein
(STL, K, 
177)
Greg
Zuerlein
(STL, K, 
180)
Def/K
Greg
Zuerlein
(STL, K, 
192)
Cowboys
(DAL, 
D/ST, 190)
Greg
Zuerlein
(STL, K, 187)
Buccaneers
(TB, 
D/ST, 184)
Buccaneers
(TB, 
D/ST, 181)

So, which team came out the strongest? Well, that is entirely subjective. As is the case with almost every fantasy team, each squad has its strengths and weaknesses. Personally, I think that the "3rd Pick Tm" came out with the best roster. However, let's put "strongest team" argument aside, and instead focus on the larger point, namely, each squad looks pretty legit on paper as of the time drafted. Would you say that any of these squads are monumentally inferior? I wouldn't. I see five strong squads, all ready to take care of business once the season starts.

So, the next time someone in your fantasy league complains about how unfair it is that they ended up with their assigned draft slot, just tell them to make do, and if that doesn't work, send 'em on over here.

Hopefully, they will realize that the true key to fantasy drafting success is a sound strategy, not which slot they landed in the draft order.

No comments:

Post a Comment